Alignement culturel et développement inclusif dans les Petits États Insulaires: Une analyse par méthodes mixtes

A mixed-methods analysis

Abstract

This paper tests the Inclusive Culture Alignment Theory (TACI) on a panel of 10 Small Island Developing States (SIDS) covering the period 2006-2024, combining econometric and qualitative methods. Quantitative analysis uses stationarity tests (ADF, Levin-Lin-Chu, Im-Pesaran-Shin, Hadri, Fisher), cointegration tests (meta-analysis by Fisher, 1932), Granger causality tests with bootstrap (Hurlin and Venet, 2001) and a threshold model by Hansen (1999). The results show a critical threshold for democratic culture at c* = -1.093 (F = 15.80, p < 0.001) and for elite engagement at e*=0.397 (F = 7.1879, p < 0.01), a long-term relationship detected for six countries but whose robustness is limited by the cross-sectional dependence between SIDS and a Granger predictive causality for the full set of TACI dimensions, but with marginal evidence for elite engagement. The qualitative analysis, based on a  comparative process-tracing of five Caribbean cases and a counterfactual analysis applied to Haiti, identifies five mechanisms of alignment (democratic pact, authoritarian pact, colonial institutional legacy, window of opportunity seized, persistent non-alignment) and six missed windows of opportunity (1804, 1946, 1986, 1990, 2004, 2010). The convergence of the two approaches confirms that the Haitian deadlock results from a persistent non-alignment of the elites with the inclusive culture rather than from a critical and persistent insufficiency of democratic culture among the population.